Hey Adar, those are some good thoughts.
1. You're right: ASP.NET MVC is focused on generating complete HTML pages so the web browser can navigate through them in a traditional way. As you predict, this model will likely fade away eventually (see Google Web Toolkit or client-side MVC approaches) but for the next few years at least, for interoperability and meeting-the-public's-expectations reasons, we still need to support the traditional web page model.
2. Naming isn't clear yet. Who knows what ASP.NET MVC will be called when it gets to a final release? Also, it is built on ASP.NET, and shares a lot of common infrastructure, including the WebForms engine, so you can't say it's "not" ASP.NET.
3. You can definitely share the "model" portion of your MVC triad across web and desktop apps without any code changes. Almost all your business rules should be in the model. You could conceivably try to share controller code, but there shouldn't be much business logic there, and it's probably too hard to be worth it. You definitely can't share the Views portion - WebForms views are all about the web.